I’ve been forecasting a Mid January top in the SP 500 (Us Markets) for multiple weeks now well in advance. My work had looked for 1285 as a minimal upside rally from the 1173 4th wave lows. The range was 1285-1315, we have been to 1296 but that pretty much should have capped off the rally. Here are some further thoughts:
Copper, Gold, Silver- All topping and rolling over for now. A few weeks ago I began to go bearish on Gold (And with it of course Silver), and the Elliott Wave patterns became very muddy and unclear. This was a warning signal. Also, the inability of Gold to pierce through the 1425-30 highs for a 3rd attempt indicated a triple top failure which I eluded to in an Email bulletin a few weeks back. The Gold, Copper, Silver topping and rollover movements are warning signals to be more cautious. Gold should work down to 1270-1280 eventually, and Silver to 25-26.50 ranges likely.
Small Cap Index- The TZA ETF I suggested on TMTF recently had a huge 2 day reversal rally on Thursday and Friday of this trading week. TZA Closed just over 16 and I see it moving to 19-20. We are long also in my ATP advisory service for insurance and gains potential. The Russell 2000 is rolling over first, which makes sense because the sentiment and strong economic rebound from the summer lows has peaked out. Small Caps are likely to correct the hardest in this wave pattern down, and so we shorted them instead of shorting the large caps or SP 500. To wit, this week the small caps dropped 3.5% and the SP 500 only 0.8%.
IBD 100- The Investors Business Daily top 100 fell 5.4% this week collectively. A quick scan of the charts on those 100 reveals a lot of topping and weakness patterns to me. These would be considered leader small cap and mid cap growth stocks, and suggests further evidence of continuing correction in the markets.
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